Nvidia Charts $500B AI Investment Push, S&P 500 Rally Shows Cracks, Oil Faces Strait of Hormuz Risk and Bitcoin Holds $63K

Global markets entered the weekend with a two-speed tone. U.S. equity indexes have been grinding higher, yet strategists increasingly flag a disconnect between price performance and corporate fundamentals. On the corporate side, Nvidia is dominating the AI infrastructure narrative, while Washington’s pressure on Apple’s chip sourcing and a flurry of private-market AI valuations add new crosscurrents. Meanwhile, fresh Middle East shipping tensions and a quiet Bitcoin session are testing investor nerves.

Market Strategy and Equities

• The S&P 500 has rallied strongly, but the advance is showing increasingly visible signs of diverging from underlying fundamentals. Analysts point to a widening gap between what the index is pricing and what the macro and earnings data are delivering, leaving the market more vulnerable to a catalyst-driven repricing. Source
• Bank of America says trend-following funds could keep buying Nasdaq and Japanese equities if markets remain stable or continue to rise. Because these systematic strategies rely on momentum signals, a sustained uptrend could extend inflows and add technical support to those markets. Source
• Morgan Stanley flagged four catalysts for SpaceX stock through year-end, spanning developments around artificial intelligence, Starship and computing infrastructure. The analysis suggests that SpaceX’s valuation now depends on executing across both launch capability and AI-related compute demand. Source
• Truist argued that a reported takeover approach for Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) could revive a dormant software M&A market. The bank named additional potential software M&A targets, as acquirers may once again look to deploy capital in the application software space. Source

Corporate and AI Infrastructure

• Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is planning to mobilize up to $500 billion in potential investment for AI infrastructure. The plan was characterized as a positive for the stock because it reflects durable demand for AI compute and could expand the total addressable market for Nvidia’s data center platforms. Source
• Nvidia is also in talks to invest as much as $3 billion in SB Energy, a SoftBank Group (TYO:9984)-backed renewable energy developer, as part of the OpenAI data center project in Ohio. The deal would link AI compute expansion to clean energy capacity, highlighting how power supply is becoming a critical input for data center growth. Source Source
• Separately, Nvidia has cut its planned financial guarantee for OpenAI’s proposed data center in Ohio to below $120 billion, according to the WSJ. The change reduces Nvidia’s balance sheet exposure even as the project continues to rely on Nvidia’s chips and technology. Source
• Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is shifting its artificial intelligence strategy toward commercialization and scale rather than purely research-oriented development. The pivot implies greater emphasis on monetizing AI products and services, which is likely to influence Alphabet’s capital allocation in the coming quarters. Source
• Anthropic is projecting annual revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028, a target that is now central to the company’s IPO valuation discussions. Bankers and investors are weighing whether the ambitious trajectory justifies a private-market valuation well ahead of current revenue. Source
• The Trump administration has urged Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) not to purchase memory chips from Chinese manufacturers as a global memory chip shortage intensifies. The move could force Apple to further diversify its supplier base and adds another geopolitical layer to the semiconductor supply chain. Source

Macro, FX and Energy Geopolitics

• A sustained move in USD/JPY above 160 without intervention could weaken confidence in Japan’s commitment to defending the currency. Analysts warn that each failed intervention threshold erodes the credibility of Japanese policy response, making the next move in dollar-yen a key global macro event. Source
• A vessel operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) came under attack while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. President Trump defended the extended deployment of U.S. aircraft carriers in the region, and the incident is adding a risk premium to crude oil. Source
• Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed at least 11 people on Saturday, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. The escalation keeps Middle East geopolitical risk elevated, with potential spillover to energy prices and investor risk sentiment. Source

Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin traded slightly above $63,000 on Saturday, little changed over the past 24 hours. Corporate selling pressure is offsetting positive regulatory progress, keeping the cryptocurrency rangebound as investors search for a directional catalyst. Source

Key Data and Market Outlook

• The high-profile macro numbers heading into next week are Bitcoin around $63,000, USD/JPY relative strength above 160 and a fragile but positive tone for equities, with the S&P 500 near record levels yet facing fundamental scrutiny.
• In the AI trade, the key figures to monitor are Nvidia’s $500B mobilization plan, the $3B SB Energy investment, the reduced sub-$120B OpenAI guarantee and Anthropic’s $190B-$200B 2028 revenue target. These numbers will frame sentiment in both public and private AI markets.
• Geopolitical catalysts in the Middle East, particularly the Strait of Hormuz attack and Lebanon strikes, could drive crude oil volatility in the coming week, while trend-follower positioning in Nasdaq and Japanese equities remains an upside technical risk to monitor.