Markets Rebound on Iran Diplomacy and Softer Inflation · Technology Leadership, AI Earnings and Falling Oil Shape the Week Ahead

Market Overview: Risk Appetite Improves as Geopolitical Pressure Eases

• Global markets began the new week with a more constructive tone after President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were continuing and suggested that talks could begin on Monday, despite Tehran’s denial. The prospect of a diplomatic channel and a potential agreement related to the Strait of Hormuz reduced immediate fears of a wider Middle East escalation, helping equities advance, Treasury yields decline and oil prices retreat. Investors nevertheless remained sensitive to the possibility that the diplomatic optimism could reverse quickly if negotiations fail. 原文
• Wall Street recorded solid gains on Monday, providing a positive opening to August after a volatile July. The advance reflected a combination of lower energy prices, easing bond yields, renewed demand for technology stocks and continued confidence in second-quarter corporate earnings. The market’s performance suggests that investors are willing to look through near-term political and geopolitical uncertainty when earnings growth and artificial-intelligence investment remain supportive. 原文
• The week’s central market tension is the balance between strong corporate results and growing concerns over elevated valuations in AI-related stocks. Robust earnings are helping support the broader S&P 500, but the durability of the technology rally will depend on whether companies can continue converting AI spending into revenue, margins and cash flow rather than relying solely on expectations of future growth. 原文

Macro and Fixed Income: Softer Inflation and Lower Oil Reduce Rate Pressure

• South Korea’s consumer inflation eased to a **three-month low in July**, registering **2.8% year over year** and coming in below market expectations. The softer reading points to reduced near-term price pressure in the Korean economy and may give policymakers greater flexibility if domestic growth weakens. For regional markets, the data is supportive of Korean bonds and interest-rate-sensitive sectors, although food, energy and currency movements remain important risks to the disinflation trend. 原文
• U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the curve as crude oil prices fell sharply following the improvement in the perceived odds of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Lower oil prices reduce the risk of a renewed inflation shock, which in turn can ease pressure on longer-term borrowing costs and improve the valuation backdrop for growth companies. Shorter-dated notes also declined in yield, indicating that markets were adjusting both inflation expectations and the outlook for monetary policy. 原文
• The Middle East remains the most important macroeconomic risk for the week. Any disruption involving the Strait of Hormuz could affect global energy shipments, raise transportation and insurance costs, and revive inflation concerns. Conversely, credible negotiations could continue to lower oil risk premiums, support bonds and strengthen the market rotation toward technology and other long-duration assets. 原文

Equities and Technology: Capital Rotates Back Toward AI and Growth Stocks

• Deutsche Bank estimates that the rotation back into technology stocks has further room to run after attracting **$15.6 billion** in capital. The move indicates that investors are again favoring sectors with strong structural earnings growth, particularly companies exposed to cloud computing, semiconductors and AI infrastructure. However, the scale of the inflow also raises the risk that positioning becomes crowded, making future performance increasingly dependent on earnings delivery rather than broad multiple expansion. 原文
• Amazon.com (AMZN) surpassed a historic **$3 trillion market valuation**, driven by investor confidence in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The milestone underscores the strategic importance of Amazon Web Services and the company’s ability to use AI investment to support cloud demand, operating leverage and future productivity. At the same time, a valuation of this size leaves the shares particularly sensitive to any slowdown in cloud growth, higher infrastructure spending or weaker consumer demand. 原文
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) raised its full-year revenue and profit outlook after reporting a **93% year-over-year increase in second-quarter revenue**. The upgrade reinforces the market’s view that demand for AI-enabled software and data analytics is translating into measurable commercial growth. Palantir’s results also illustrate the premium investors are assigning to companies that can demonstrate both AI adoption and improving profitability, although the elevated expectations may increase volatility if future contract growth or margins moderate. 原文
• Alibaba Group (HK:9988) shares rose after the company introduced **Qwen 3.8-MAX**, its latest artificial-intelligence model. The launch strengthens Alibaba’s position in China’s increasingly competitive AI ecosystem and could support demand across cloud services, enterprise software and digital applications. Investor attention will focus on whether Qwen can generate sustained commercial adoption and improve Alibaba Cloud’s growth profile rather than simply expand the company’s technology offering. 原文
• Goldman Sachs added **Microsoft (MSFT)** and five other companies to its August U.S. Conviction List while removing **Broadcom (AVGO)**. The reshuffle reflects changing preferences within the technology sector and suggests that analysts are distinguishing between companies with durable earnings visibility and those whose valuations or near-term catalysts have become less compelling. Such list changes can influence institutional positioning, particularly during a period of strong sector rotation. 原文
• Goldman Sachs also added **ASML**, **Sika** and **Puig** to its European Conviction List for August 2026. The selections broaden the technology and industrial exposure of the recommended portfolio beyond U.S. megacap companies, with ASML representing semiconductor manufacturing equipment and Sika representing construction and industrial materials. The changes indicate that investors are still seeking companies with structural growth or strong competitive positions despite uneven European economic conditions. 原文

Corporate Earnings and Company Developments

• Snap (SNAP) beat quarterly revenue expectations and issued current-quarter sales guidance that was broadly above market forecasts. The company’s advertising revenue was the main positive factor, with the improvement supporting a sharp rise in the shares during after-hours trading. The result suggests that digital advertising demand remains resilient, although Snap’s longer-term performance will depend on user engagement, advertiser retention and its ability to compete with larger platforms for marketing budgets. 原文
• Boeing (BA) shares rose approximately **5%** after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration approved the **737 MAX-7** for production and issued an amended type certificate. The regulatory decision removes an important obstacle for Boeing’s smallest MAX variant and may improve production visibility, customer confidence and the company’s ability to meet its aircraft backlog. The approval remains significant because Boeing’s recovery depends not only on demand but also on regulatory compliance, manufacturing quality and delivery execution. 原文
• PostNL shares gained as much as **9.8%**, reaching their highest level since mid-June, after the Dutch postal company reported first-half free cash flow above expectations and maintained its 2026 outlook. The company is still facing weaker parcel and mail volumes, but the cash-flow performance reassured investors that cost control and operating execution may be offsetting part of the volume pressure. The market reaction shows that cash generation and guidance stability remain powerful catalysts in mature, low-growth industries. 原文
• Food-service stocks came under pressure after Michigan officials reported that a cyclospora outbreak had claimed **two lives**. Shares of **Sweetgreen (SG)** fell approximately **7%**, while **Yum! Brands (YUM)** declined around **2%**. The reaction demonstrates how public-health events can quickly affect restaurant valuations through concerns over customer traffic, brand reputation, supply-chain controls and potential legal or regulatory costs, even before the financial impact is fully quantified. 原文

Commodities and Cryptocurrency

• Gold prices posted marginal gains as traders responded to lower oil prices and the possibility that delayed military action against Iran could reduce immediate geopolitical risk. Softer crude eases concerns about inflation, while unresolved Middle East tensions continue to preserve demand for defensive assets. The mixed drivers left gold supported but restrained, with investors weighing safe-haven demand against the prospect of reduced escalation. 原文
• Bitcoin traded marginally higher after recovering from an earlier decline below **$63,000**. The cryptocurrency market remained unsettled as a Coldcard-related hack overshadowed optimism surrounding possible U.S.-Iran diplomacy. The episode highlights the dual sensitivity of digital assets to macroeconomic liquidity and idiosyncratic security events: easing yields and improved risk appetite can support prices, but exchange, wallet and infrastructure vulnerabilities can rapidly weaken sentiment. 原文
• Crude oil declined sharply as expectations of U.S.-Iran talks reduced the immediate probability of military escalation and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The fall in oil prices benefited bonds and growth stocks by lowering anticipated inflation, but the market remains vulnerable to sudden reversals because the diplomatic situation is unresolved and Hormuz is a critical energy-transit route. 原文

Key Data and Market Outlook

• The most important confirmed data points are **South Korea’s 2.8% July inflation rate**, **$15.6 billion of inflows into the technology rotation**, **Palantir’s 93% second-quarter revenue growth**, **Amazon’s $3 trillion valuation**, **Boeing’s roughly 5% share gain**, **PostNL’s 9.8% intraday advance** and **Bitcoin’s move below $63,000 before a modest recovery**. Together, these figures show a market rewarding earnings momentum, AI exposure and regulatory progress while remaining highly reactive to geopolitical and public-health risks.
• Near-term market direction will depend primarily on whether U.S.-Iran negotiations produce tangible progress, whether falling oil prices remain durable and whether upcoming corporate results validate the current technology-led rally. A sustained decline in energy prices and bond yields would favor growth stocks, while renewed tensions around Hormuz could reverse the recent move by lifting crude, inflation expectations and defensive demand.
• Investors should also monitor the quality of earnings growth beneath the headline figures. Companies such as Amazon, Palantir, Snap and Alibaba are benefiting from AI, cloud or digital advertising themes, but their valuations increasingly require continued revenue acceleration and disciplined spending. The broader market outlook therefore remains constructive but selective: strong balance sheets, visible cash flow and demonstrable AI monetization are likely to outperform companies whose performance depends mainly on narrative momentum.