Soft Jobs Data Firm Up Fed Rate-Cut Bets · Nvidia’s $500B AI Fund, Oil Supply Risks and Mixed Earnings Set the Tone

Wall Street entered the new week with caution on Monday, giving back a small slice of the previous week’s strong rally after the S&P 500 recorded a fresh closing high on Friday. The market’s mood was shaped by a surprisingly soft July payrolls report, which bolstered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, but also by lingering uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a blockbuster AI financing initiative led by Nvidia, and a steady stream of corporate earnings and analyst actions.

Market Overview and Macro Backdrop

• U.S. stocks ended Monday slightly lower after posting their best week since mid-April, as investors weighed the implications of a surprise drop in July payrolls and persistent doubts about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all moved in narrow ranges, with the soft labor-market data reinforcing bets on near-term Fed easing while geopolitical risk kept some buyers on the sidelines. Source
• On Friday, the S&P 500 climbed to a record close as traders bet that the surprise drop in July payrolls would keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward lowering interest rates. The focus now shifts to the coming week’s U.S. inflation data and more technology earnings, which will help determine whether the rally can extend after such a rapid advance. Source
• JPMorgan remains upbeat on equities for the second half of the year, pushing back against a range of concerns including slowing growth and stretched valuations. The bank sees further upside for stocks, supported by still-resilient corporate earnings and the prospect of policy easing as inflation gradually cools. Source
• In regional markets, Sri Lankan stocks closed higher for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, led by real estate names, as local investor sentiment continued to improve. The sustained advance reflected a more constructive view of domestic assets despite the broader global uncertainty. Source

Equity Markets: Analyst Actions and Stock Moves

• Berkshire Hathaway shares climbed more than 2.5% to their highest level under CEO Greg Abel, after the company delivered strong quarterly results and disclosed several new stakes. The move showed investor confidence in Berkshire’s capital deployment and the smooth transition to new leadership. Source
• Jefferies downgraded Apple to Underperform from Hold and lowered its price target to $263.66, warning that a higher-priced iPhone roadmap could be difficult to execute in the current demand environment. The bearish call raised fresh questions about Apple’s ability to push premium pricing without hurting volume. Source
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE) jumped 5% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock, pointing to as much as 30% upside. The upgrade was driven by improving fundamentals and stronger demand for AI-related networking and server infrastructure. Source
• Intel shares dropped 4.6% after the chipmaker announced a surprise $15 billion equity offering, a blockbuster move that raised concerns about dilution at a time when Intel is trying to fund an ambitious turnaround and foundry expansion. Source
• Retail investors sold SpaceX stock on a net basis on Friday for the first time since the company’s June initial public offering, suggesting that enthusiasm among individual traders may be cooling after the post-IPO surge. The shift marks a notable change in sentiment toward one of the most closely watched newly listed names. Source

Corporate Earnings and Guidance

• Hims & Hers Health posted a bigger-than-expected second-quarter loss but raised its annual revenue forecast, citing strong subscriber growth across its telehealth platform. The combination of a wider loss and improved forward guidance left investors balancing near-term profitability concerns against accelerating revenue momentum. Source
• Sana Biotechnology (NASDAQ: SANA) reported second-quarter results that beat analyst expectations, but shares still fell 5% as the market focused on clinical-stage risk and the company’s cash runway. The earnings beat was not enough to offset investor caution around the biotech pipeline. Source
• Monday.com (NASDAQ: MNDY) delivered second-quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates, but shares declined after the company issued weaker-than-expected guidance. The soft forward outlook tempered enthusiasm about the company’s recent growth trajectory. Source
• Rocket Lab forecast third-quarter margins below Wall Street expectations, as the rapid expansion of its Neutron launch vehicle program continues to weigh on profitability. The margin guidance overshadowed operational progress and raised questions about the timing of the company’s next phase of growth. Source
• Bernstein trimmed its 2026–2031 adjusted earnings-per-share forecasts for Novo Nordisk by as much as 15% below consensus, citing intensifying competition and pricing pressure in the GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes market. The cut amplified the debate over whether the recent weakness in Novo Nordisk’s stock is a buying opportunity or a sign of deeper challenges. Source

Corporate Strategy and Regulatory Developments

• Flowers Foods is seeking to divest its Tastykake baked-goods business, according to people familiar with the matter. The potential sale is part of a broader effort to streamline the packaged-food company’s portfolio and concentrate on higher-growth brands. Source
• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged Netcapital with securities fraud on Monday, alleging that the company inflated its revenue. The enforcement action highlights regulators’ continued focus on financial disclosures and revenue-recognition practices. Source

Technology, AI and Semiconductors

• A massive Monday leak became official when Nvidia and a group of Wall Street giants unveiled plans for a $500 billion AI funding deal. The initiative, first reported by the Financial Times, is designed to finance AI infrastructure at an unprecedented scale and cements Nvidia’s role at the center of the AI capital-expenditure supercycle. Source
• Meta shares rose 2.4% after the launch of Muse Glimmer, a highly efficient AI model, alongside the company’s broader and more radical AI vision. The release underscores Meta’s push to develop lighter-weight models that can be deployed more cheaply and widely. Source

Commodities: Gold and Oil

• Gold prices extended a strong advance from the previous week, holding near seven-week highs. The rally is underpinned by soft U.S. jobs data, which strengthens the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while uncertainty around Iran and the broader Middle Eastern outlook provides an additional safe-haven bid. Source
• Oil prices jumped nearly 5% on Monday after a steep weekly loss, as Iran ruled out direct talks with the U.S. and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive. Continued Houthi attacks on shipping stoked additional supply risks, forcing traders to rebuild a geopolitical risk premium into crude prices. Source

Cryptocurrency

• Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Chainlink’s LINK/USD token with a price forecast of $200, and analysts predicted the cryptocurrency could surge more than 2,000% by 2030. The bullish call is tied to growing adoption of decentralized oracle networks and increasing demand for tokenized real-world assets. Source

Key Data and Market Outlook

Looking at the key data, the S&P 500 enters the week from a record closing high, gold is hovering near seven-week highs, and crude oil has rebuilt a sizable geopolitical risk premium. The immediate catalyst will be the next round of U.S. inflation data, followed by more technology earnings. With JPMorgan maintaining a constructive view on H2 equities and the $500 billion AI funding initiative adding a structural tailwind, the market appears to be balancing cooling macro data and expected policy easing against elevated valuations and persistent supply-side risks.