Fed Minutes and Hormuz Tensions Set Cautious Tone After Record Run · Gold Nears $4,400, Oil Holds Gains, AI and Biotech Moves Dominate

Market Overview: Pullback After a Record Week

• Wall Street ended Monday lower as traders took a breather following a record-setting stretch, with sentiment dented by geopolitical jitters and positioning consolidation. The pullback came after a powerful run: the S&P 500 had closed out its third consecutive weekly gain on Friday before stalling, underscoring how quickly the market shifted from momentum to caution at the start of the new week. 原文 原文
• Markets are now squarely focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, which will provide fresh clues on the rate path, alongside developments in the Strait of Hormuz following an escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. The combination of monetary policy signals and oil-related inflation risks is keeping rate expectations in flux and volatility elevated across asset classes, with traders reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the central bank release. 原文 原文

Macro & Central Banks: Fed Stance Keeps Yields Elevated, Dollar Steadies

• Citadel Securities argues that the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy following a period of elevated inflation continues to push Treasury yields higher, a structural force that keeps financial conditions tighter and reinforces the dollar's yield advantage. This dynamic is a key reason why rate-sensitive assets remain under pressure even as headline inflation cools, and it suggests short-term rates may stay higher for longer than markets currently price. 原文
• The U.S. dollar on Monday recovered after earlier sliding to its lowest level in more than two months, as traders pared back bets on further Fed hikes. The greenback's stabilization helped Asian currencies tick up, while the yen strengthened despite weak Japanese GDP data, suggesting investors treated yen gains as a safe-haven play rather than a reflection of domestic growth momentum. 原文

Geopolitics & Commodities: Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Gold Gains on Soft Dollar

• Gold prices ticked up 1% on Monday, hovering near the $4,400 level, supported by a softer dollar and fading expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening. With the Fed minutes due this week and oil prices adding an inflationary risk premium, bullion is caught between rate-repricing pressure and safe-haven demand, leaving the metal vulnerable to a breakout in either direction depending on the tone of central bank commentary. 原文
• Oil prices extended their weekly gains as the U.S. and Iran continue to wrangle over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil supply. The geopolitical premium persists even as some profit-taking emerged at higher levels, and traders are closely monitoring any escalation that could disrupt tanker flows and tighten physical crude availability. 原文
• President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of Washington's efforts to hold Hormuz talks with Iran, raising the stakes in the confrontation and adding a new layer of friction to already tense Gulf diplomacy. In a parallel policy move, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington will announce steps to help refiners produce more fuel, an initiative aimed at easing pump prices and bolstering domestic supply resilience in the face of elevated geopolitical risk. 原文 原文

Equities & Strategy: Pullbacks Seen as Buying Opportunities

• JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka maintained a positive view on equities, pointing to a supportive macro backdrop and resilient earnings, and outlined his top equity themes for the rest of 2026. The stance implies that near-term pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities rather than the start of a deeper correction, with cyclical exposure and quality growth name remaining preferred areas. 原文
• Goldman Sachs weighed in on when AI will start boosting corporate earnings beyond the infrastructure layer, noting that the Q2 earnings season was strong across the S&P 500, with AI infrastructure companies once again driving the bulk of the upside. The bank's analysis suggests the AI payoff is still concentrated in a narrow set of enablers, but the contribution is expected to broaden into software, cloud and enterprise applications over the next several quarters. 原文
• The Q2 earnings cycle continues to produce August's biggest stock moves well beyond the megacap names. Some of the sharpest winners are AI-selected small-cap stocks, with two of those names up 39% and 34% month-to-date, demonstrating that earnings season is driving outsized single-stock volatility in the smaller-cap segment even as index-level moves remain modest. 原文

Corporate & Earnings Highlights: Beef, Biotech Movers and IPO Pipeline

• Cargill employees voted to end a labor dispute that had halted cattle slaughtering at its U.S. beef processing plant, clearing the way for operations to resume and easing concerns about near-term beef supply disruptions. The resolution removes a source of upward pressure on wholesale beef prices and allows the company to rebuild throughput in the impacted facility. 原文
• Andersen Group Inc. (NYSE: ANDG) fell 4.3% in after-hours trading after announcing a $43 million share secondary offering, a move that typically pressures the stock as the market absorbs new supply and dilutes existing holders in the near term. 原文
• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLX) jumped 14.5% in after-hours trading after announcing the timing of its Phase 3 trial results, a binary catalyst that investors view as a potential value-creating event given the company's focus on neurological diseases and the high-stakes nature of the readout. 原文
• Kura Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: KURA) rose 5.4% in after-hours trading following an insider stock purchase by its CEO, a signal that management sees the shares as undervalued and a confidence vote in the company's clinical pipeline and capital position. 原文
• Shein Global Holdings Ltd. is seeking a valuation between $26 billion and $27 billion for its Hong Kong IPO, according to reports, a closely watched test of investor appetite for fast-fashion retail and a major potential listing for the Hong Kong market. The targeted range marks a significant step down from the company's peak private valuation and reflects a more disciplined pricing environment for growth listings. 原文
• Harvard Management Co. disclosed a $2.2 billion stake in SpaceX, making the rocket company more than half of its U.S. equity portfolio. The striking concentration highlights elite endowments' growing appetite for private high-growth assets and reflects SpaceX's remarkable valuation growth and the scarcity of high-quality private exposure. 原文

AI & Tech: Nvidia's $100B Credit Support, Anthropic's Run Rate and Micron's Bull Case

• Nvidia has agreed to provide more than $100 billion in credit support for a new OpenAI data center in Ohio, one of the largest financing commitments tied to AI infrastructure to date. The arrangement underscores how deeply the AI value chain is becoming intertwined, with chipmakers effectively underwriting the buildout of their own end demand and signaling confidence in the durability of AI capex cycles. 原文
• Anthropic's annual revenue run rate topped $65 billion by the end of July, according to a person familiar with the matter. The rapid scaling of the AI company's revenue highlights the explosive growth in enterprise AI adoption, even as questions persist about long-term monetization and the heavy capital intensity required to sustain frontier model development. 原文
• Bank of America sees Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) generating $230+ in earnings per share by fiscal 2030, a long-term bullish call that dismisses peak-cycle fears over memory pricing as overblown. The forecast implies sustained demand from AI data centers, tightening supply discipline across the memory industry, and a more structurally profitable driver of future semiconductor earnings. 原文

Crypto: Bitcoin Steadies Near $63.5K

• Bitcoin rose slightly on Monday but remained in a tight trading range, with investors weighing Iran war tensions, which can support safe-haven demand, against U.S. regulatory uncertainty that continues to cap upside. The largest cryptocurrency steadied near the $63,500 level, with traders looking for a fresh catalyst — whether from the Fed minutes or geopolitical escalation — to break it out of its recent consolidation. 原文

Key Data Wrap & Market Outlook

• Across markets on Monday: gold near $4,400 with a 1% gain, oil extended its weekly advance on Hormuz risks, the dollar stabilized after touching a two-month low, the S&P 500 pulled back following three straight weeks of gains, and Bitcoin held around $63,500. These cross-asset moves point to a market that is resilient but reluctant to chase risk aggressively ahead of policy and geopolitical catalysts. 原文 原文 原文
• The week's key catalysts are the Fed minutes and any new developments in the U.S.-Iran confrontation, both of which will shape the twin drivers of policy expectations and the geopolitical risk premium. With Q2 earnings largely delivered and the AI trade still dominating equity narratives, investors are likely to oscillate between record-high exuberance and macro caution, making data releases and headline risk the primary drivers of short-term direction. 原文 原文