Weak Jobs Report Fuels Rate-Cut Bets · Wall Street Record Highs, Gold & Bitcoin Rally, Tech Earnings Diverge

Wall Street ended at a record high on Friday, but the celebratory mood masked a sharp divergence across markets. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July — the first monthly decline since February — while prior gains were revised lower. That shifted the narrative back to Federal Reserve rate cuts, weakening the dollar and lifting gold and bitcoin. At the same time, a bruising selloff in South Korean chip stocks and a mixed batch of U.S. tech earnings underscored growing anxiety about the durability of the AI trade.

Macro Economy & Federal Reserve Policy

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, marking the first negative monthly print since February and prompting downward revisions to the previous two months. The soft labor data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy as soon as September, a scenario that weighed on the U.S. dollar and pushed it toward its first two-week losing streak since late May. 原文 原文
• President Donald Trump formally initiated a new attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing a recent Supreme Court ruling that likely expands presidential removal powers over independent agencies. The move reopens tensions between the White House and the Fed’s leadership, and could complicate the central bank’s communications just as it prepares to pivot on interest rates. 原文

Global Equities & Market Sentiment

• Wall Street’s main indexes closed at a record high on Friday, as traders interpreted the soft July jobs report as a green light for faster Fed easing and focused on upbeat earnings surprises. The positive momentum was not global, however: South Korea’s KOSPI extended its sharp downturn and finished the week more than 6% lower, hit by a deepening chip selloff and fading enthusiasm for AI-related plays. 原文 原文

Corporate Earnings & Stock Moves

• Atlassian surged 33% in early trading after the enterprise software maker posted fiscal results that analysts described as a game changer, easing fears that AI would undermine traditional software demand. The strong response sent a ripple through the software sector and provided a counter-narrative to the AI-capex slowdown worries. 原文
• Airbnb rose more than 8% in premarket trading after the vacation rental company beat Wall Street’s Q2 expectations and lifted its 2026 outlook, citing broad-based strength in travel demand. The update suggests consumer spending on experiences remains resilient despite macro headwinds. 原文
• Cloudflare posted a top- and bottom-line beat for the second quarter and raised its full-year guidance, sending shares sharply higher after hours. The company’s performance reinforces the view that cloud infrastructure and security demand is still expanding, even as enterprises scrutinize AI budgets. 原文
• Celsius Holdings jumped 12% on Friday, paring the prior session’s losses, after the co-founder of Rockstar Energy built a 4.7% stake in the company and demanded the removal of its CEO. The activist move ignited speculation about a strategic shake-up in the fast-growing energy-drink category. 原文
• Take-Two Interactive delivered a solid start to its fiscal year, but shares dipped after the company issued a cautious outlook ahead of the highly anticipated GTA VI launch. Investors appeared to want stronger visibility on monetization timing and development costs. 原文
• The Trade Desk plunged more than 27% in premarket trading after the digital advertising company posted disappointing Q2 results and guidance, triggering a raft of Wall Street downgrades. The sharp selloff highlights intensifying competition in ad-tech and concerns about weakening digital ad spend. 原文
• Under Armour fell more than 3% in premarket trade after cutting its full-year outlook, overshadowing a slight earnings beat. The sportswear maker’s guidance reduction points to persistent weakness in wholesale and North American demand. 原文
• Meta Platforms, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, was ordered by a New Mexico state court to pay $567 million, a ruling that could reshape the legal framework for social media platform liability. The company is expected to appeal, but the decision adds another layer of regulatory and legal risk for large platforms. 原文

Industry Trends & Policy

• OpenAI has halted some internal development of its next-generation artificial intelligence model after identifying a critical cyber capability risk in its upcoming Astra model. The pause underscores the growing tension between pushing AI capabilities forward and ensuring safety and security, and it could delay the timeline for future model releases. 原文
• President Donald Trump will host a group of mining CEOs as the administration seeks to secure critical minerals for defense supply chains. The meeting signals a policy push to accelerate domestic mining, processing and refining of minerals such as lithium, rare earths and copper, which could have broad implications for the global supply chain. 原文

Commodities

• Gold was headed for its best weekly performance since late January, supported by a softer dollar, rising rate-cut bets and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. In a notable call, Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner began advocating for adding structural exposure to gold for the first time, arguing that it is time to start buying the metal again. 原文 原文
• Oil prices seesawed on Friday but remained on track for steep weekly losses, pressured by demand fears even as Iran sought to ban U.S. and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz. Traders weighed the potential for supply disruptions against a deteriorating global demand outlook, keeping crude benchmarks volatile. 原文

Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin climbed on Friday, helped by the unexpected negative jobs report, which encouraged traders to ease expectations for Fed tightening. The largest cryptocurrency was hovering near $64,000, still below recent highs but showing renewed sensitivity to macro liquidity signals. A more dovish Fed could provide further tailwinds for digital assets in the coming weeks. 原文

Key Data & Market Outlook

• The week ahead will be dominated by U.S. inflation data and Fed speakers as investors test whether the soft payrolls report marks a genuine turning point. If the data continues to weaken, market pricing for September rate cuts will likely extend, keeping gold and bitcoin supported and the dollar under pressure. However, the growing political interference at the Fed, the unresolved Hormuz shipping risk, and the cooling AI trade in Asia could introduce fresh bouts of volatility across asset classes.